First there was America’s Team, now is there America’s Hometown?
While some housing markets in the United States struggle with affordability or even availability, others are flourishing and should continue to do so through at least 2024, if not longer.
Take Dallas/Fort Worth for example. No longer will this area be considered just the home of America’s Team (the Dallas Cowboys), but now may earn the moniker of America’s Hometown.
That’s because it, along with several other markets that are doing well, should all outperform initial projections for that market over the next three to five years, according to a study released in December by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”
The 10 most notable markets expected to outperform projections also included Charleston, S.C., Charlotte, Colorado Springs, Colo., Columbus, Ohio, Fort Collins, Colo., Las Vegas, Ogden, Utah, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill in North Carolina and Tampa-St. Petersburg in Florida.
There were a number of factors that made these markets project to be the hottest as far as real estate over the next half-decade, including job growth compared to the national average, housing affordability, the structure of the age population, their attractiveness to retirees, how likely they are to attract new residents from out of the area and also the appreciation of home prices over time.
“Potential buyers in these markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, a broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”
Job growth is the primary factor driving up prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth market. It has seen a jobs boost of nearly three percent in the last three years, almost doubling the national average of 1.6 percent.
About 15 percent of the total population in Dallas-Fort Worth (approximately 1.1 million people) moved into the area recently, and 75 percent of those are renters.
However, 51 percent of those recently moved renters can afford to buy a home at the median price of $289,700 assuming a 20 percent down payment. The median income of individuals who have recently moved to Dallas-Fort Worth is $57,900, which would also indicate those looking for workforce housing (middle-income earners) are finding what they need in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
The median age of these folks moving to the area is 29 years old and 35 percent of them are either married couples or couples with children, meaning they are likely looking to set down roots in an area for some time – the average length of time homeowners own a home in Dallas-Fort Worth is 10 years.
Most people who are moving into the Dallas-Fort Worth area are coming from other parts of Texas, with a plurality coming from the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market.
However, the second biggest influx of migrators comes from Southern California (Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim).
In addition, there are notably significant numbers of people coming from the New York, Chicago, Atlanta and Washington D.C. markets, suggesting that people are on the hunt for better opportunities away from some of the larger markets in the country that also face affordability and availability concerns.