Monthly Archives: February 2020

10 Housing Markets Expected to Outperform

People in search of housing are like flakes of snow and fingerprints – no two are exactly alike.

There are different things every individual, couple or family are looking for when deciding where to live.

Schools. Neighborhoods. Transportation. Access to shopping and entertainment. Jobs. Affordability. Permutations and combinations abound.

Yet, some metropolitan markets are attracting more residents than others. What’s the difference? Why do people want to move to certain metros and not others?

The National Association of REALTORS® used data on domestic migration, housing affordability for new residents, consistent job growth relative to the national average, population age structure, attractiveness for retirees and home price appreciation, and other variables to identify which markets are succeeding, and why.

Here are the 10 most successful markets, who expect to outperform expectations, in the next 3-5 years:

January home sales spur optimism for New York State housing market

Closed sales and pending sales were up in January in year-over-year comparisons, fueling optimism for a robust 2020 housing market, according to the housing market report released by the New York State Association of REALTORS®.

The median sales price continued to appreciate as the calendar turned to 2020. The statewide median sales price was $300,000 – an increase of 9.1-percent from the January 2019 median of $275,000.

The above index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

Inventory shrank 9.2 percent to 56,333 units.

The Value of Land Is Increasing

Buying a home is an investment. You hear that all the time because it’s true. But it isn’t the only real estate transaction that can be an investment, as indicated by the sustainable growth shown in the past year in both the number of sales and the price of the sales of land nationwide.

According to data from the REALTORS® Land Institute (RLI) and National Association of REALTORS® research group that was compiled in their latest land market survey, there was an increase in total sales for land, mostly for residential or recreational use, and that the median price per acre of land increased by $1,000 from October, 2018 to September, 2019, jumping from $4,500 to $5,500.

Price increases are primarily due to a greater price-per-acre of residential land with the demand for land to build affordable housing continuing to grow stronger and stronger.

A majority of land purchases are being made by either developers or smart investors who will buy the land in anticipation of what is coming down the road in a specific community.

“We’re seeing a lot of communities take dilapidated parts of town and repurpose them.”

“Buying land is starting with a clean slate,” said RLI’s 2020 National President, Kyle Hansen ALC, “An investor might be able to buy land a little further out from current development at a reasonable price. They can see the potential growth of a community in a certain direction, buy the land at a discount price and hang on to it as it appreciates before it needs to be developed down the road.

“This land can be re-zoned too. What was maybe a potential industrial park, can now be re-zoned as commercial or even residential based on what the community needs. There are so many more options when it’s land rather than something else that’s pre-existing.”

Meeting Local Needs

Developers are buying bare land nationwide for a variety of purposes. A huge chunk of that is the development of residential communities as affordable housing continues to be a buzzword from one coast to another.

And it’s not just in major metropolitan markets where the demand for affordable housing is ramping up.

“I think you are seeing it nationwide,” Hansen said. “Here in Iowa, we don’t have a large metropolis. Yes, Des Moines is growing well, and other communities are developing but we don’t have a Chicago, an Atlanta or a San Francisco where the only options are to build upwards, on top of one other.

“Still, there is a desire to buy land for housing shortages and that land is going for anywhere from 1.5-to-3 times the agricultural value to build what is needed.”

Hansen gave an example of the town of Ankeny, Iowa, which has a lot of farmers who live close to the city limits. With development taking over, the price of land is doubling. Farmers are either selling that land for development or buying land and re-investing it into additional farm value, growing their land from, for example, 100 acres to 300 acres.

“Either way, it adds to the competition, which increases the prices,” Hansen said.

Parties interested in the potential purchase of land should research a specific community growth plan, which is a public record and often presented as part of a planning or zoning meeting.

Even smaller communities have little plans, sometimes with something as niche as an “agri-hood” where an acre of land in a specific community can be used to create community gardens with residents sharing the space and building that sense of community and even going so far as to use it to support the notion of farm-to-table foods, which are popular, especially in areas where farming is particularly active and abundant.

“We’re seeing a lot of communities take dilapidated parts of town and repurpose them,” Hansen said. “Sometimes it might take a couple different developers working together or having to look into opportunity zones – areas in each state where new development is desired – and utilize the tax advantages of doing that. Communities are doing this. They might have one city block where they tear down old buildings and build the garden and that gets the ball rolling.

“It starts with the ability to see an area of distress get back to being land and develop it from a clean slate. Whether it’s converting it to open space, or re-zoning it multi-family residential with commercial spaces around it, it can change the culture and attitude of a town. It starts with a garden and maybe leads to high-end apartments, or townhomes, with new shopping, restaurants and entertainment. Just like that, you have something new, special and desirable – all because of starting over with a blank canvas.”

Pace of growth slowing

However, while there remains growth in land transactions, the pace of the growth still declined slightly from the previous year studied.

Properties are spending a longer time on the market than usual when it comes to land, lasting approximately 120 days on the market compared to between 90 and 100 days in recent years studied.

Those responding to the survey suggested depressed commodity prices, as well as local zoning restrictions and financing hurdles, are the cause for the slight slowdown.

The survey respondents also projected a 2.2% increase in sales in 2020, with the largest increases coming in residential, industrial and irrigated agricultural lands. However, despite that increase, as well as a predicted increase in price for all land types, they again expect the price growth to be slower (1.6 percent) for the remainder of the year.

“The land market continues to see local volatility,” Hansen said in a separate statement. “Due to this volatility, it is important to have someone working for you who has a deep understanding of local markets and trends. No property is 100% comparable to another. It takes a dedication to our clients and meeting their needs, which is something RLI members, especially those who have earned RLI’s elite Accredited Land Consultant (ALC) Designation, continuously strive to provide. An RLI member is who you need to contact to get the best advice when buying and selling your most valuable asset, your land.”

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The 2020 Census is Here. What Does it Mean?

The 2020 Census is practically upon us.

It is a vast undertaking that takes place once a decade and in a lot of ways requires an all-hands-on-deck approach to get it right.

That means it’s not just the United States Census Bureau that tackles the Herculean task of breaking down the country’s population. No, the Bureau leans on the help of various national organizations to provide outreach to all citizens of the country to make sure the participation level is as high as it can be.

The Census is more than just a headcount. It’s vastly important to determine a lot of things over the course of the next 10 years in America.

“Approximately $1.5 trillion in federal dollars is allocated to states and specific communities each year based purely on Census results.”

It helps to determine accurate Congressional representation in the House of Representatives as well as the number of delegates offered to a state for Presidential elections.

But perhaps more importantly, federal funding allocated to states often relies on the accuracy of the most recent Census. Whether it’s funding to improve infrastructure projects like roads and hospitals or funding for schools or even the allocation of money for federal student loans or government-funded housing – how to spread that money around appropriately results from the Census count.

Among the organizations, the Bureau is enlisting to support the outreach for the Census is the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

“NAR is able to provide tremendous value to our members because of the research we produce examining trends in communities across this country,” NAR President Vince Malta, a broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, said in a statement. “But the usefulness of that information relies on current, accurate data from the federal government. Full participation in the Census is in many ways the only way to ensure that data is correct.”

According to NAR, approximately $1.5 trillion in federal dollars is allocated to states and specific communities each year based purely on Census results.

In 2020 alone, the Census will influence the allocation of $93.5 billion in Federal Direct Student Loans, $19.3 billion in Section 8 Housing Choice vouchers and $12 billion for the National School Lunch Program.

NAR will ask each of its 1.4 million members to share promotional materials about the Census with clients, potential clients, neighbors and events that gather communities together.

Notices about the 2020 Census will be mailed in mid-March, and the Bureau will offer a guide in roughly 60 different languages. This year will mark the first time the questionnaire can be completed online, while options to respond over the phone and through the mail will still be available.

Last month, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee reviewed some of the challenges associated with accurately securing this information at its hearing, Reaching Hard-to-Count Communities in the 2020 Census. And states are taking different measures to try to reach hard-to-count communities or simply to provide reminders for people to participate in more populated areas.

Efforts At The State Level

In Nevada, stickers on produce at supermarkets and catchy jingles on video screens while pumping gas are being considered to get people to participate and to boost their participation rate from the 71 percent it was in 2010.

In Alaska, the Alaska Public Interest Research Group helped to translate the Census into four Native Alaska languages that are unique specifically to their state, to boost participation. American Indians and Alaska Natives have been historically underrepresented in the Census, with an estimated undercount of 4.9 percent in 2010. Also, Alaska gets an early start on the Census, as it has been underway since January since it is easier to reach some of the state’s more remote villages during the winter freeze than after it starts to thaw out in the Spring.

In New York, the City’s Census office has a target to educate 10,000 New Yorkers directly and recruit 7,500 volunteers for Neighborhood Organizing Census Committees, to conduct “Get Out the Count” efforts across the city including through phone-banking, text-banking and on-the-ground canvassing.

The city has also pressed into service the City University of New York, a range of city agencies that regularly interact with the public, and 110 branches of the city’s three library systems. They are also being aided by a host of labor unions, business groups, faith leaders and houses of worship.

New York’s participation percentage of 62 percent in 2010 lagged far behind the national average of 75 percent.

One of the reasons some people choose not to participate in the Census is because there is a mistrust in the government about what it will do with the data collected through the Census. However, the Census Bureau will never ask for bank account or social security numbers, donations or anything on behalf of a political party, and strict federal law protects the confidentiality of Census responses.

A lot can change in a decade. The last time the Census was done in 2010, selfies on your iPhone wasn’t even a thing. And while 10 years-worth of photos on America’s smart phones are not on the Bureau’s radar, it is important for the government to track changes that occurred in the past decade as to where people live, who got married, had children, and how that impacts federal money to be appropriated into each state and specifically into individual communities.

It’s important to be counted.

There are three ways to take part in the 2020 Census:

  • BY MAIL: Available in both English and Spanish, the paper form will arrive via mail in April and can be mailed back to the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • ONLINE: For the first time ever, the census can be completed online. It will be available in 13 different languages (English, Arabic, Chinese, French, Haitian Creole, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Tagalog and Vietnamese). The website is census.gov
  • BY PHONE: Call 1-800-923-8282 and provide answers over the phone. All 13 languages listed above are also available on the phone as well as the Telecommunication Device for the Deaf.

Millennials Lead the Housing Pilgrimage to Colorado Springs

While some housing markets in the United States struggle with affordability or even availability, others are flourishing and should continue to do so through at least 2024, if not longer.

Take the Colorado Springs market for example. No longer just the home of the U.S. Olympic Committee, the Air Force Academy and USA Hockey. Instead, the burgeoning western market is growing rapidly and with a lot of younger folks moving to the area, it could well be a trendy location to become home for many residents in the years to come.

“A whopping 21 percent of the total population in the Colorado Springs market moved into the area recently, and 68 percent of those are renters.”

It, along with several other markets that are doing well, should all outperform initial projections for that market over the next three to five years, according to a study released in December by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

The 10 most notable markets expected to outperform projections also included Charleston, S.C., Charlotte, Columbus, Ohio, Dallas-Fort Worth in Texas, Fort Collins, Colo., Las Vegas. Ogden, Utah, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill in North Carolina and Tampa-St. Petersburg in Florida.

There were a number of factors that made these markets project to be the hottest as far as real estate over the next half-decade, including job growth compared to the national average, housing affordability, the structure of the age population, their attractiveness to retirees, how likely they are to attract new residents from out of the area and also the appreciation of home prices over time.

“Potential buyers in these markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, a broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

A whopping 21 percent of the total population in the Colorado Springs market (approximately 155,700 people) moved into the area recently, and 68 percent of those are renters.

That rent number shouldn’t surprise since the median age of all recent movers to the area is 27 years old.

Still, despite the youthful nature of this population boom, 35 percent of those recently moved renters can afford to buy a home at the median price of $286,100 assuming a 20 percent down payment.

Despite the young age, 56 percent of these recent movers are either married couples or families, meaning they are looking for a place to set down roots for their families while finding a place that is affordable to live and work. The remaining 44 percent are single individuals, and considering the median age, they are likely looking to begin their careers in a place they can afford to live. The average length of time for people to own a home in Colorado Springs is only eight years, but with the influx of new residents being more than one-fifth of the population, that number should rise in the coming years.

While a large number of recent movers have come from other parts of Colorado, specifically Denver, which is struggling with housing affordability and availability, about 50 percent of people are moving to Colorado Springs from out of state – and not just the biggest cities.

Seattle and Washington D.C. top the list, but Colorado Springs is getting an influx of new residents from Killeen/Temple, Texas, Fayetteville, N.C. and Honolulu.

It’s also seeing migration on a smaller but still noteworthy scale from other large cities like Los Angeles, Dallas and New York.

It doesn’t come as a surprise that NAR sees it as a market that will exceed expectations. In 2018, Colorado Springs received several accolades: U.S. News and World Report named it the number one most desirable place to live in the United States. The Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings Institute found it to be the fastest-growing city for Millennials and Thumbtack’s annual Small Business Friendliness Survey found Colorado Springs to be the number four most business-friendly city in the country.

Something’s Brewing in Fort Collins as it Expects to Outperform Housing Projections

While some housing markets in the United States struggle with affordability or even availability, others are flourishing and should continue to do so through at least 2024, if not longer.

Take Fort Collins, Colo. for example. Nowadays, there’s a lot more on tap in this city than just the Anheuser-Busch and other craft beer breweries that attract visitors to the town.

“While a majority of the recent movers have come from other parts of Colorado, specifically from Denver where there is a bit of a housing crunch, a good chunk of new residents have been migrating from out of state.”

It, along with several other markets that are doing well, should all outperform initial projections for that market over the next three to five years, according to a study released in December by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability, combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

The 10 most notable markets expected to outperform projections also included Charleston, S.C., Charlotte, Colorado Springs, Colo., Columbus, Ohio, Dallas-Fort Worth in Texas, Las Vegas. Ogden, Utah, Durham-Chapel Hill in North Carolina and Tampa-St. Petersburg in Florida.

There were a number of factors that made these markets project to be the hottest as far as real estate over the next half-decade, including job growth compared to the national average, housing affordability, the structure of the age population, their attractiveness to retirees, how likely they are to attract new residents from out of the area, and the appreciation of home prices over time.

“Potential buyers in these markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, a broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

A significant chunk of the total population in the Fort Collins market (approximately 58,300 people, or 17 percent) moved into the area recently, and 74 percent of those are renters.

That rent number shouldn’t surprise, since the median age of all recent movers to the area is 28 years old.

Still, despite the youthful nature of this population boom, 15 percent of those recently moved renters can afford to buy a home at the median price of $404,700 assuming a 20 percent down payment. The median income of individuals who have recently moved to Fort Collins is $50,000, which would also indicate those looking for workforce housing (middle-income earners) are finding what they need in this market.

As the young average age would indicate, two-thirds of these recent movers (66 percent) are single individuals, likely looking to begin their careers in a place they can both find work and simultaneously afford to live. The remaining 34 percent are either married couples or families, meaning they are looking for a place to set down roots for their families while finding a place that is affordable to live and work. The average length of time people own a home in Fort Collins is only eight years, but that is likely to go up with a younger group of new homeowners coming into the market looking to make Northern Colorado their home.

While a majority of the recent movers have come from other parts of Colorado, specifically from Denver where there is a bit of a housing crunch, a good chunk of new residents have been migrating from out of state, with arrivals from Chicago, Los Angeles, D.C., Kansas City, Mo., Cheyenne, Wy. and Riverside, Calif. registering more than just a blip on Fort Collins’ radar.

It doesn’t come as a surprise that NAR sees it as a market that will exceed expectations. According to a report in The Coloradoan, job growth in Fort Collins saw an increase of 18 percent (approximately 31,000 jobs) in a five-year span from October 2014 through October 2019.

The same report also identified Fort Collins as having the ninth largest job growth in the U.S. during that same time span.

Queen City Still King

While some housing markets in the United States struggle with affordability or even availability, others are flourishing and should continue to do so through at least 2024, if not longer.

Take the Charlotte market for example. It has been one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States this entire millennium, and although it is nearing the end of that growth arc, it’s still a place people want to live.

“The median age of folks moving to the Charlotte area is 29 years old, which is on the younger side for most markets.”

In May 2019, Charlotte surpassed Indianapolis as the 16th largest city in the United States and was one of only five of the top 20 to see population growth from 2017 to 2018.

And while housing affordability isn’t what it once was in Charlotte, when compared to other cities in the top 100 markets in the United States, it’s still attractive to a lot of people.

It, along with several other markets that are doing well, should all outperform initial projections for that market over the next three to five years, according to a study released in December by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

The 10 most notable markets expected to outperform projections also included Charleston, S.C., Colorado Springs, Colo., Columbus, Ohio, Dallas-Fort Worth in Texas, Fort Collins, Colo., Las Vegas. Ogden, Utah, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill in North Carolina and Tampa-St. Petersburg in Florida.

There were a number of factors that made these markets project to be the hottest as far as real estate over the next half-decade, including job growth compared to the national average, housing affordability, the structure of the age population, their attractiveness to retirees, how likely they are to attract new residents from out of the area and also the appreciation of home prices over time.

“Potential buyers in these markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

About 14 percent of the total population in the Charlotte market (approximately 366,000 people) moved into the area recently, and 70 percent of those are renters. That rental number is high, mostly because there is a belief that Charlotte’s no longer as affordable to live in as it once was.

And while that may be true when compared to 20 years ago, it’s still one of the more affordable big cities in the country.

Consider that a sizeable number (56 percent) of those renters who recently moved to Charlotte can afford to buy a home at the median price of $265,800 assuming a 20 percent down payment. The median income of individuals who have recently moved to Charlotte is $58,000, which would also indicate those looking for workforce housing (middle-income earners) are still able to find what they need in this market.

The median age of these folks moving to the area is 29 years old, which is on the younger side for most markets. Considering 55 percent of them are married couples or families, it’s a sure bet that these individuals are looking for a place to set down roots for their families while finding a place that is affordable to live and work. The remaining 45 percent are single individuals, and considering the median age, are likely looking to begin their careers in a place they can afford to live. The average length of time for people to own a home in Charlotte is 11 years.

While some of the recent movers to Charlotte have come from other parts of North Carolina, the biggest groups of new residents are coming from out of state. People from New York, Atlanta and Columbia, S.C. are the three biggest groups of people moving to Charlotte with additional migrators from Washington D.C., Miami and Philadelphia.

Charlotte may not be the burgeoning destination location it was at the turn of the 21st century, but it’s still growing. It’s still attractive to many outsiders looking to escape the housing crunches in larger Eastern time zone cities, and it’s still a market that should outperform expectations as we move into the roaring twenties.

Gambling on Las Vegas as a Place to Call Home

While some housing markets in the United States struggle with affordability or even availability, others are flourishing and should continue to do so through at least 2024, if not longer.

Take the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise market for example. That’s right, people are gambling on this market now rather than just identifying it as a vacation spot or a transient town – a reputation the market has been trying to shed for some time.

“Las Vegas has seen a jobs boost of nearly three percent in the last three years, almost doubling the national average of 1.6 percent.”

It, along with several other markets that are doing well, should all outperform initial projections for that market over the next three to five years, according to a study released in December by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

The 10 most notable markets expected to outperform projections also included Charleston, S.C., Charlotte, Colorado Springs, Colo., Columbus, Ohio, Dallas-Fort Worth in Texas, Fort Collins, Colo., Ogden, Utah, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill in North Carolina and Tampa-St. Petersburg in Florida.

There were a number of factors that made these markets project to be the hottest as far as real estate over the next half-decade, including job growth compared to the national average, housing affordability, the structure of the age population, their attractiveness to retirees, how likely they are to attract new residents from out of the area and also the appreciation of home prices over time.

“Potential buyers in these markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, a broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

Job growth is the primary factor driving up prices in the Las Vegas market. It has seen a jobs boost of nearly three percent in the last three years, almost doubling the national average of 1.6 percent.

About 16 percent of the total population in Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise (approximately 363,000 people) moved into the area recently, and 71 percent of those are renters.

However, more than a third (34 percent) of those recently moved renters can afford to buy a home at the median price of $291,600 assuming a 20 percent down payment. The median income of individuals who have recently moved to Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise is $46,500, which would also indicate those looking for workforce housing (middle-income earners) are finding what they need in this market.

The median age of these folks moving to the area is 32 years old and 47 percent of them are single individuals, meaning they might be looking for an opportunity to settle down in their new careers. The average length of time for people to own a home in Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise is seven years.

Most people who are moving into the market are coming from out of state, making it a true destination location for folks looking to jump start their careers or find a place to put down familial roots.

In fact, the nine largest areas that people come from to move into this market are from outside Nevada. Only Reno cracks the top 10, and it comes in at No. 10.

The largest influx of migrators comes from Southern California (Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim).

In addition, there are notably significant numbers of people coming from other California locations such as San Francisco and San Diego as well as the New York, Chicago, Phoenix, Denver and Honolulu markets, suggesting that people are on the hunt for better opportunities away from some of the larger markets in the country that also face affordability and availability concerns.

Ogden No Longer Just A Drive-by Town

While some housing markets in the United States struggle with affordability or even availability, others are flourishing and should continue to do so through at least 2024, if not longer.

Take Ogden, Utah for example. Always known as the gateway to popular ski resorts like Snowbasin, Powder Mountain and Nordic Valley, Ogden is getting much more serious attention from people who want to live there – not just pass through on their way to the slopes.

“The average length of time for people to own a home in Ogden is 10 years, which shows the market has a staying power when it comes to settling down into a community.”

It, along with several other markets that are doing well, should all outperform initial projections for that market over the next three to five years, according to a study released in December by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

The 10 most notable markets expected to outperform projections also included Charleston, S.C., Charlotte, Colorado Springs, Colo., Columbus, Ohio, Dallas-Fort Worth in Texas, Fort Collins, Colo., Las Vegas, Durham-Chapel Hill in North Carolina and Tampa-St. Petersburg in Florida.

There were a number of factors that made these markets project to be the hottest as far as real estate over the next half-decade, including job growth compared to the national average, housing affordability, the structure of the age population, their attractiveness to retirees, how likely they are to attract new residents from out of the area, and the appreciation of home prices over time.

Ogden specifically has seen job growth of nearly 3 percent, almost double the national average (1.6 percent).

“Potential buyers in these markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, a broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

Approximately 13 percent of the total population in the Fort Collins market (about 86,300 people) moved into the area recently, and 63 percent of those are renters.

That rent number shouldn’t surprise since the median age of all recent movers to the area is just 26 years old with 44 percent of that population being under the age of 25.

Still, despite the youthful nature of this population boom, 41 percent of those recently moved renters can afford to buy a home at the median price of $271,000, assuming a 20 percent down payment. The median income of individuals who have recently moved to Ogden is $55,500, which would also indicate those looking for workforce housing (middle-income earners) are finding what they need in this market.

Despite the young median age, 62 percent of recent movers are married couples or families, meaning a combination of folks looking to begin their careers in a place they can both find work and simultaneously afford to live, and those looking for a place to set down roots for their families while finding a place that is affordable to live and work is the driving force behind bringing young families to Utah.

The average length of time for people to own a home in Ogden is 10 years, which shows the market has a staying power when it comes to settling down into a community, and that is likely to go up even more with a younger group of new homeowners coming into the market looking to make it their home.

While a majority of the recent movers have come from other parts of Utah, there are a significant number of new residents coming from parts of Idaho, Riverside, Calif., or the Los Angeles, Seattle, Phoenix, Houston and Portland markets.

Triangle Taking a New Shape as Transplants Grow the Market

While some housing markets in the United States struggle with affordability or even availability, others are flourishing and should continue to do so through at least 2024, if not longer.

Take the Durham-Chapel Hill area in North Carolina for example. Always known as the Research Triangle because of the abundance of top-end medical colleges in the area, this portion of the state is also flush with new job opportunities and housing that is affordable to younger folks looking to buy their first home.

“According the Raleigh News & Observer U-Haul identified this market as No. 1 in the country based on one-way truck rentals in 2019.”

It, along with several other markets that are doing well, should all outperform initial projections for that market over the next three to five years, according to a study released in December by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

The 10 most notable markets expected to outperform projections also included Charleston, S.C., Charlotte, Colorado Springs, Colo., Columbus, Ohio, Dallas-Fort Worth in Texas, Fort Collins, Colo., Las Vegas, Ogden, Utah and Tampa-St. Petersburg in Florida.

There were a number of factors that made these markets project to be the hottest as far as real estate over the next half-decade, including job growth compared to the national average, housing affordability, the structure of the age population, their attractiveness to retirees, how likely they are to attract new residents from out of the area, and the appreciation of home prices over time.

Raleigh specifically has seen job growth of nearly three percent, almost double the national average (1.6 percent). With Durham and Chapel Hill basically suburbs to Raleigh, it would make sense that the growth in jobs in the city makes living in the suburbs more attractive.

“Potential buyers in these markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, a broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

About 15 percent of the total population in the Durham-Chapel Hill market (approximately 84,400 people) moved into the area recently, and 72 percent of those are renters.

That rent number shouldn’t surprise since the median age of all recent movers to the area is 28 years old. In total, 54 percent of all recent movers to the area were between the ages of 18 and 34.

Still, despite the youthful nature of this population boom, 36 percent of those recently moved renters can afford to buy a home at the median price of $274,300, assuming a 20 percent down payment. The median income of individuals who have recently moved to Durham-Chapel Hill is $48,800, which would also indicate those looking for workforce housing (middle-income earners) are finding what they need in this market.

As the young average age would indicate, 58 percent of these recent movers are single individuals, likely looking to begin their careers in a place they can both find work and simultaneously afford to live. The remaining 42 percent are either married couples or families, meaning they are looking for a place to set down roots for their families while finding a place that is affordable to live and work. The average length of time for people to own a home in Durham-Chapel Hill is 11 years, meaning this community has staying power when it attracts residents – once they come, they are unlikely to leave.

While most of the recent movers have come from other parts of North Carolina, specifically neighboring Raleigh, a good chunk of new residents have migrated south from the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. markets.

A little less scientific, but likely still telling data about the influx of new residents to this area comes from the self-service moving company U-Haul. According to a report in the Raleigh News & Observer U-Haul identified this market as the No. 1 in the country in 2019 based on one-way truck rentals in 2019.

U-Haul indicated that one-way rentals coming into the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area increased by three percent from 2018 and the number of one-way rentals leaving the market decreased by two percent in the same time span.